Modeling Hit Rates Between Minor League Levels

Modeling Hit Rates Between Minor League Levels

Working on figuring out the hit rates for minor leaguer batters between levels. I’d like to take the hit rates(i.e. singles(1B/PA), doubles(2B/PA), triples(3B/PA) and HRs(HR/PA) ) a player had at their previous minor league level and use that data to predict how a player will do at the following level. Similar data has been used as in the previous articles on walk rates and strike out rates. This data set covered 2011-2015 and players with a minimum of 200 PA’s were included in the resulting model. Below are the graphs for each level, models and some thoughts.

A to A+

A to A+ Hit Rates

A theme throughout the graphs will show that the correlation numbers for singles and home runs are high but very low for doubles and triples. These same low correlation numbers for doubles and triples were found in previous research by Matt Klassen at Fangraphs.

Linear models:

  •  A+ Single Rate = (A single rate)*0.53520 + 0.07452
  • A+ Double Rate = (A double rate)*.36379 + .02929
  • A+ Triple Rate = (A triple rate)*.403826 + .004743
  • A+ HR Rate = (A HR rate)*.633131 + .0006235

A+ to AA

A+ to AA Hit Rates

Linear models:

  • AA Single Rate = (A+ Single rate)*.48235 + .07969
  • AA Double Rate = (A+ Double rate)*.22680 + .03389
  • AA Triple Rate = (A+ Triple rate)*.377505 + .003751
  • AA HR Rate = (A+ HR rate)*.534897 + .007925


AA to AAA Hit Rate

Linear models:

  • AAA Single Rate = (AA Single Rate)*.52767 + .07912
  • AAA Double Rate = (AA Double Rate)*.248769 + .03645
  • AAA Triple Rate = (AA Triple Rate)*.355865 + .003757
  • AAA HR Rate = (AA HR Rate)*.58037 + .00881

Whats Next:

  • Perform some validation on the above models
  • Combine the models you’ve generated to predict OBP/SLG/OPS
  • Make models that skip levels
  • Make code more efficient so you can do this faster



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *